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MASSIMO GUIDOLIN

Working papers

Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson-Siegel Models
MASSIMO GUIDOLIN and M. Pedio

IGIER Working Paper No. 639.

We use monthly data on the US riskless yield curve for a 1982-2015 sample to show that mixing simple regime switching dynamics with Nelson-Siegel factor forecasts from time series models extended to encompass variables that summarize the state of monetary policy, leads to superior predictive accuracy. Such spread in forecasting power turns out to be statistically significant even controlling for parameter uncertainty and sample variation. Exploiting regimes, we obtain evidence that the increase in predictive accuracy is stronger during the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-2009, when monetary policy underwent a significant, sudden shift. Although more caution applies when transaction costs are accounted for, we also report that the increase in predictive power owed to the combination of regimes and of monetary variables that capture the stance of unconventional monetary policies is tradeable. We devise and test butterfly strategies that trade on the basis of the forecasts from the models and obtain evidence of riskadjusted profits both per se and in comparisons to simpler models. Key words: Term structure of interest rates, Dynamic Nelson-Siegel factors, regime switching, butterfly strategies, unconventional monetary policy.
 


Modificato il 03/02/2019

Can Investors Benefit from Hedge Fund Strategies? Utility-Based, Out-of-Sample Evidence
MASSIMO GUIDOLIN and A. Orlov

BAFFI CAREFIN Centre Research Paper No. 2018-87.

We report systematic, out-of-sample evidence on the benefits to an already well diversified investor that may derive from further diversification into various hedge fund strategies. We investigate dynamic strategic asset allocation decisions that take into account investors’ preferences as well as return predictability. Our results suggest that not all hedge fund strategies benefit a long-term investor who is already well diversified across stocks, government and corporate bonds, and REITs. Only strategies whose payoffs are highly nonlinear (e.g., fixed income relative value and convertible arbitrage), and therefore not easily replicable, constitute viable options. Most of the realized economic value fails to result from a mean-variance type of improvement but comes instead from an improvement in realized higher-moment properties of optimal portfolios. Medium to highly risk-averse investors benefit the most from this alternative asset class.


Modificato il 03/02/2019

Monetary Policy after the Crisis: Threat or Opportunity to Hedge Funds' Alphas?
GUIDOLIN MASSIMO, A. Berglund, and M. Pedio

 Immagine correlata

BAFFI CAREFIN Centre Research Paper No. 2018-84.

We examine the effects of U.S. monetary policy announcements during and after the Great Financial Crisis on the average abnormal returns (the “alpha”) of the hedge fund industry as a whole and of a range of hedge strategy indices. We apply a variety of tests of increasing sophistication including simple event studies, formal tests for breaks, and Markov switching models. The event studies show that both the overall index and longshort equity and fixed income arbitrage hedge strategies were systematically affected by unexpected monetary policy announcements while other strategies appear to have been less impacted. Formal break point tests show that for all but one strategies as well as the overall index, there is evidence of five breakpoints. For the overall index and most of the sub-indices many of the endogenously determined breaks closely match a list of policy surprise dates that have been already singled out because they had strongly affected financial markets in general. Especially for the long-short equity, fixed income arbitrage, dedicated short-bias, and global macro hedge funds, there is a significant tendency for estimated alphas decline over time, following policy surprises.


Modificato il 30/08/2018

Forecasting Commodity Futures Returns: An Economic Value Analysis of Macroeconomic vs. Specific Factors
GUIDOLIN MASSIMO and M. Pedio

Immagine correlata

BAFFI CAREFIN Centre Research Paper No. 2018-86.

We test whether three well-known commodity-specific variables (basis, hedging pressure, and momentum) may improve the predictive power for commodity futures returns of models otherwise based on macroeconomic factors. We compute recursive, out-of-sample forecasts for fifteen monthly commodity futures return series, when estimation is based on a stepwise regression approach under a probability-weighted regime-switching regression that identifies different volatility regimes. Comparisons with an AR(1) benchmark show that the inclusion of commodity-specific factors does not improve the forecasting power. We perform a back-testing exercise of a meanvariance investment strategy that exploits any predictability of the conditional risk premium of commodities, stocks, and bond returns, also taking into account transaction costs caused by portfolio rebalancing. The risk-adjusted performance of this strategy does not allow us to conclude that any forecasting approach outperforms the others. However, there is evidence that investment strategies based on commodity-specific predictors outperform the remaining strategies in the high-volatility state.


Modificato il 30/08/2018

Modificato il 30/08/2018



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