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Course 2019-2020 a.y.

20656 - METHODS AND DATA ANALYTICS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

CYBER
Department of Decision Sciences

Course taught in English

Go to class group/s: 25

CYBER (7 credits - II sem. - OB  |  SECS-S/06)

Classes: 25 (II sem.)
Instructors:
Class 25: CHRISTOPH JOHANN FEINAUER


Suggested background knowledge

- Probability. - Statistics. - Computer science. - Programming.


Mission & Content Summary
MISSION

Data analytical methods are important for cyber security in two contrasting ways: On the one hand, they can be used for assessing and predicting risk in a large number of areas, and with the trend towards big data and the introduction of new machine learning paradigms this number is growing even further. In particular, Bayesian methods have become more and more important, since they are especially suited for dealing with uncertainty and also work when only a limited number of data is available. The purpose of this course is consequently two-fold: First, to teach the students the aspects of probabilistic thinking and Bayesian methods for risk prediction based on real-life applications from different fields. In the last part of the course, we will also give an introduction to the method of Monte Carlo, which is widely used in the field in industry for simulations of processes involving risk.

CONTENT SUMMARY
  • Bayesian approach to Probability
  • Bayesian Methods in Risk Assessment
  • Bayesian Networks and Causal Graphs
  • Unsupervised learning in the Bayesian context
  • Supervised learning in the Bayesian context
  • Case studies: Risk prediction in business, software, hardware, law, medicine, insurance, climate
  • Introduction to Monte Carlo Methods
  • Monte Carlo Methods for Risk Assessment

Intended Learning Outcomes (ILO)
KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING
At the end of the course student will be able to...
  • The Bayesian (and frequentist) view of the world
  • Understand the principles and methods of supervised and unsupervised learning in Bayesian terms
  • Gain an intuition for the building of a Bayesian data analysis pipeline from data collection to final predictions
  • Understand the concept and purpose of Monte Carlo simulations
APPLYING KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING
At the end of the course student will be able to...
  • Formulate a problem in terms of Bayesian methods
  • Design and apply a Bayesian data analysis pipeline using large or small datasets
  • Read current literature on the application of data analytics to risk assessment in different domains
  • Implement Monte Carlo simulations and use them as tools for solving real-world problems

Teaching methods
  • Face-to-face lectures
  • Case studies /Incidents (traditional, online)
DETAILS

Case studies: Reading/Presenting of literature around risk assessment using data analysis and machine learning.


Assessment methods
  Continuous assessment Partial exams General exam
  • Written individual exam (traditional/online)
  •     x
    ATTENDING AND NOT ATTENDING STUDENTS

    The exam consists of a theory part and a case discussion part.

    • The theory part features open and closed answer questions.
    • The case discussion part consists of a short description of a risk prediction task and ask the students to present a roadmap for solving the problem.
    • The exam is not open-book: any material outside of what are provided by the instructors is forbidden.

    Teaching materials
    ATTENDING AND NOT ATTENDING STUDENTS

    Are communicated at the beginning of the course.

    Last change 06/06/2019 10:50