Insegnamento a.a. 2024-2025

20969 - MACHINE LEARNING AND CAUSAL INFERENCE FOR MARKETING DECISIONS

Department of Marketing

Course taught in English

Class timetable
Exam timetable
Go to class group/s: 31
CLMG (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - M (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - IM (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - MM (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - AFC (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - CLELI (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - ACME (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - DES-ESS (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - EMIT (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - GIO (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - DSBA (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - PPA (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - FIN (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08) - AI (6 credits - II sem. - OP  |  SECS-P/08)
Course Director:
MARTON VARGA

Classes: 31 (II sem.)
Instructors:
Class 31: MARTON VARGA


Mission & Content Summary

MISSION

Understanding concepts such as utility maximization, discrete choice, and consumer decision simulation is highly beneficial for aspiring managers and business analysts. This course equips students to predict and analyze various outcomes from different managerial actions. The course delves into the future of data-driven decision-making, enabling students to create artificial datasets that mirror real-world industry scenarios. By mastering advanced techniques and causal inference models, participants will analyze consumer behaviors, such as purchase patterns, subscription habits, churn rates, or sensitivity to targeted discounts. Guided by experienced data scientist mentors, students receive valuable feedback and insights throughout their group projects, refining their research questions and modeling approaches with managerial significance. This blend of theory and practice equips students to help firms make strategic, data-driven decisions, positioning them for success as future managers.

CONTENT SUMMARY

During interactive lectures, you'll gain insights into marketing analytics and acquire the skills to write your own computer code. In the initial part of the course, we'll focus on mastering the basics of regression analysis, decision trees, and the R language. As we progress into the latter part of the course, we'll delve into advanced methods for machine learning, prediction, and simulation.

 

In a hands-on group project, students will unleash the power of advanced techniques and causal inference models to unravel the intricacies of consumer decisions. Whether it's analyzing purchase patterns, decoding subscription behaviors, or predicting churn, students will choose the managerial question that fascinates them the most. Consequently, students will present the outcomes of a group project they've conceptualized and analyzed. For the group project, students will use R to simulate all the data they have to work with. (I.e., students do not need to carry out a survey or obtain company data for this course.)

 

Topics that can be expected during the course:

    Regression Analysis

    Regression and Decision Trees

    Model Assessment

    Machine Learning Methods: Random Forest, Lasso

    Matching

    Difference-in-differences

    Endogeneity

    Simulation of Consumer Choice

    Optional further topics: e.g., online reviews, product search, recommendation systems


Intended Learning Outcomes (ILO)

KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING

At the end of the course student will be able to...
  • Apply causal inference and machine learning models to understand consumer decisions.
  • Use R for statistical analysis.
  • Create realistic artificial datasets.
  • Simulate consumer decisions using utility maximization and discrete choice concepts.
  • Predict outcomes of managerial decisions through simulations.

APPLYING KNOWLEDGE AND UNDERSTANDING

At the end of the course student will be able to...
  • Recognize the impact of data analysis on business decisions.
  • Select and apply appropriate data analysis methods for business scenarios.
  • Determine suitable analysis types for various business needs.
  • Present data analysis findings to both experts and non-experts.
  • Identify critical data sources for decision-making.
  • Recommend profitable marketing campaigns based on data analysis.

Teaching methods

  • Lectures
  • Guest speaker's talks (in class or in distance)
  • Practical Exercises
  • Collaborative Works / Assignments
  • Interaction/Gamification

DETAILS

Guest speakers

Senior data scientist(s) with 10 years of industry experience will share their insights on working in a data science team, the importance of managerial acumen, and how to lead data teams efficiently.

 

Exercises

 

We will cover a variety of coding exercises in R during the classes.

 

Group assignments

 

Students will collaborate in groups on a project that involves creating a computer simulation of a business scenario and testing the outcomes of various managerial decisions. An experienced data scientist will supervise the project, providing feedback on methodology and managerial insights. This approach offers an excellent opportunity to learn about industry requirements, the relevance of data analytics, and the use of effective data inputs.

 

Interactive class activities

For the group project, dedicated sessions will help student teams learn how to simulate data, form interesting managerial questions, and analyze the business scenario using predictions and data-driven simulations.


Assessment methods

  Continuous assessment Partial exams General exam
  • Written individual exam (traditional/online)
    x
  • Collaborative Works / Assignment (report, exercise, presentation, project work etc.)
x    
  • Peer evaluation
x    

ATTENDING STUDENTS

Written Exam:

 

The final written exam will be based on the topics covered during class. It will evaluate students’ understanding and ability to apply the methods, models, and tools we have discussed. The exam does not include any elements related to computer coding, nor does it contain questions pertaining to coding. (Max 20 points)

 

Group Assignment:

 

Students will engage in a group project where their collaborative efforts will be assessed. The quality of group work, including the application of analytical methods, data interpretation, and presentation skills, will contribute to the overall evaluation. (Max 11 points)

 

Final Presentations Bonus Points:

 

A bonus point will be given to each member of the student group that delivers the best final presentation, as voted by their peers.


NOT ATTENDING STUDENTS

Not attending students will be evaluated based on a final written exam. The exam will cover specific chapters selected from the required textbook. (The exam does not include any elements related to computer coding, nor does it contain questions pertaining to coding.) (Max 31 points)


Teaching materials


ATTENDING STUDENTS

Lecture slides

 

Selected chapters from: Békés, Gábor, and Gábor Kézdi. Data Analysis for Business, Economics, and Policy. Cambridge University Press, 2021. (the digital version of the book is available for free in the library)

 

RStudio (free version) installed on laptop.


NOT ATTENDING STUDENTS

Chapters from: Békés, Gábor, and Gábor Kézdi. Data Analysis for Business, Economics, and Policy. Cambridge University Press, 2021. (the digital version of the book is available for free in the library)

Last change 17/07/2024 12:54